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Lampang FC vs Samut Sakhon City — FA Cup 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Samut Sakhon City
Samut Sakhon Cityadvanced
12/20/2023FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lampang FC62%
×Draw16%
Samut Sakhon City22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
3.42
Samut Sakhon City
2.05

Lampang FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
4.00
Samut Sakhon City
2.50

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.60
Samut Sakhon City
2.83

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Samut Sakhon City+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Samut Sakhon City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
78%
Lampang FC or Samut Sakhon City
84%
Draw or Samut Sakhon City
38%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
44%
Samut Sakhon City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
97%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
85%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
64%
Samut Sakhon City 1+ goals
87%
Samut Sakhon City 2+ goals
61%
Samut Sakhon City 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
74%
Samut Sakhon City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Samut Sakhon City away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + Samut Sakhon City defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.42

Samut Sakhon City attack 2.50 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lampang FC scores more
62%
level
16%
Samut Sakhon City scores more
22%

Lampang FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Samut Sakhon City

Samut Sakhon City beat Lampang FC 3-1 in FA Cup on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.