Lampang FC 2–0 Ranong United: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ranong United

4/2/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 30Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Lampang FC53%

×Draw25%

Ranong United22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchRanong United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.93

Lampang FC

1.60

Ranong United

0.93

Lampang FC creates 72% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 51 away

1.48

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

Ranong United

0.84

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Ranong United

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Ranong United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Ranong United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

78%

Lampang FC or Ranong United

75%

Draw or Ranong United

47%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

28%

Ranong United wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

80%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

47%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

22%

Ranong United 1+ goals

61%

Ranong United 2+ goals

24%

Ranong United 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

71%

Ranong United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Ranong United away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Ranong United defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ranong United attack 0.84 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lampang FC scores more

53%

level

25%

Ranong United scores more

22%

Lampang FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff