Lampang FC 3–4 Phrae United: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Phrae United

8/17/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 2Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Lampang FC44%

×Draw26%

Phrae United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchPhrae United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Lampang FC

1.44

Phrae United

1.13

Lampang FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 106 away

1.48

creates per match

1.24

1.01

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

Phrae United

1.24

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Phrae United

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Phrae United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

70%

Lampang FC or Phrae United

74%

Draw or Phrae United

56%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

21%

Phrae United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

76%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

42%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

18%

Phrae United 1+ goals

68%

Phrae United 2+ goals

31%

Phrae United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

60%

Phrae United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Phrae United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Phrae United attack 1.24 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lampang FC scores more

44%

level

26%

Phrae United scores more

30%

Lampang FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff