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Lampang FC vs Phrae United — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 1
Phrae United
Phrae United
P. Choeichiu 44'
2/17/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Lampang FC45%
×Draw26%
Phrae United29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.46
Phrae United
1.11

Lampang FC creates 32% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 105 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.53
Phrae United
1.23

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.00
Phrae United
1.40

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Phrae United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Phrae United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
71%
Lampang FC or Phrae United
74%
Draw or Phrae United
55%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
22%
Phrae United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
77%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
43%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
18%
Phrae United 1+ goals
67%
Phrae United 2+ goals
30%
Phrae United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
61%
Phrae United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Phrae United away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.40 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.53 + Phrae United defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Phrae United attack 1.23 + Lampang FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lampang FC scores more
45%
level
26%
Phrae United scores more
29%

Lampang FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
P. Choeichiu
54'
N. Petch-om
54'
N. Petch-om

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 0–1 Phrae United

Phrae United beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on February 17, 2021.

Goals: P. Choeichiu (44').

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.