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Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
9/3/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lampang FC37%
×Draw26%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.33
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.65

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.18

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
63%
Lampang FC or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
74%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
63%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
17%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
74%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
38%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
15%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
74%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
38%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
50%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.33

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.65 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lampang FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
37%

Lampang FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Lampang FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.