Lampang FC 2–3 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

2 – 3

Krabi FC

9/16/2018

Thai League 2 · Round 28Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lampang FC58%

×Draw23%

Krabi FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.97

Lampang FC

1.84

Krabi FC

0.97

Lampang FC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 48 away

1.48

creates per match

0.94

1.01

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Krabi FC

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

80%

Lampang FC or Krabi FC

77%

Draw or Krabi FC

42%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

33%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

84%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

55%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

28%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

62%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

25%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

75%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.84

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lampang FC scores more

58%

level

23%

Krabi FC scores more

20%

Lampang FC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff