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Lampang FC vs Khonkaen — FA Cup 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
2 – 0
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
11/8/2020FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lampang FC65%
×Draw16%
Khonkaen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
3.07
Khonkaen
1.66

Lampang FC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
4.00
Khonkaen
1.71

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.60
Khonkaen
2.14

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
84%16%3.5
68%32%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
81%
Lampang FC or Khonkaen
84%
Draw or Khonkaen
35%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
45%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
95%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
80%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
58%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
81%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
49%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
77%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + Khonkaen defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 3.07

Khonkaen attack 1.71 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lampang FC scores more
65%
level
16%
Khonkaen scores more
19%

Lampang FC at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Khonkaen

Lampang FC beat Khonkaen 2-0 in FA Cup on November 8, 2020.