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Lampang FC vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
1 – 0
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
S. Musikaphan 14'
11/21/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 14Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Lampang FC47%
×Draw26%
Chiangmai FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.47
Chiangmai FC
1.05

Lampang FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 69 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.51
Chiangmai FC
1.09

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Chiangmai FC
1.43

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
73%
Lampang FC or Chiangmai FC
74%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
53%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
23%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
77%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
43%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
18%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
65%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
28%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
63%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.43 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.51 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Chiangmai FC attack 1.09 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lampang FC scores more
47%
level
26%
Chiangmai FC scores more
27%

Lampang FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
S. Musikaphan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 1–0 Chiangmai FC

Lampang FC beat Chiangmai FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on November 21, 2020.

Goals: S. Musikaphan (14').

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.