Chiangmai FC 0–6 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Chiangmai FC

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Lampang FC

3/26/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 29700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Chiangmai FC47%

×Draw24%

Lampang FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chiangmai FCExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Chiangmai FC

1.66

Lampang FC

1.25

Chiangmai FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 102 away

1.78

creates per match

1.39

1.12

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Chiangmai FC

1.78

Lampang FC

1.39

allows per match

Chiangmai FC

1.12

Lampang FC

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw

71%

Chiangmai FC or Lampang FC

76%

Draw or Lampang FC

53%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

25%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

81%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

49%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

23%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

71%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

36%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

62%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more

47%

level

24%

Lampang FC scores more

29%

Chiangmai FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff