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Lampang FC vs BG Pathum United — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 1
BG Pathum United
BG Pathum United
5/19/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 13Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lampang FC33%
×Draw25%
BG Pathum United42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.29
BG Pathum United
1.48

BG Pathum United creates 15% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.51
BG Pathum United
1.94

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
BG Pathum United
1.06

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
BG Pathum United+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

BG Pathum United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
58%
Lampang FC or BG Pathum United
75%
Draw or BG Pathum United
67%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
14%
BG Pathum United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
72%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
37%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
14%
BG Pathum United 1+ goals
77%
BG Pathum United 2+ goals
43%
BG Pathum United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
44%
BG Pathum United (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.01 · 89 matches

BG Pathum United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.51 + BG Pathum United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

BG Pathum United attack 1.94 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lampang FC scores more
33%
level
25%
BG Pathum United scores more
42%

BG Pathum United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "BG Pathum United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs BG Pathum United

BG Pathum United beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on May 19, 2019.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang).