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Lampang FC vs Bangkok — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Bangkok
Bangkok
8/30/2024Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lampang FC49%
×Draw24%
Bangkok27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.71
Bangkok
1.21

Lampang FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Bangkok
1.42

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Bangkok
1.94

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Bangkok →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
73%
Lampang FC or Bangkok
76%
Draw or Bangkok
51%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
26%
Bangkok wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
82%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
51%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
24%
Bangkok 1+ goals
70%
Bangkok 2+ goals
34%
Bangkok 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
64%
Bangkok (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Bangkok away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Bangkok defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bangkok attack 1.42 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lampang FC scores more
49%
level
24%
Bangkok scores more
27%

Lampang FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Bangkok

Lampang FC beat Bangkok 3-0 in Thai League 2 on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.