Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lampang FC vs Army United — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 0
Army United
Army United
9/21/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 30Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Lampang FC45%
×Draw27%
Army United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.42
Army United
1.08

Lampang FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 31 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Army United
1.16

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Army United
1.35

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Army United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Army United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
71%
Lampang FC or Army United
73%
Draw or Army United
55%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
22%
Army United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
76%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
41%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
17%
Army United 1+ goals
66%
Army United 2+ goals
29%
Army United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
61%
Army United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Army United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Army United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Army United attack 1.16 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lampang FC scores more
45%
level
27%
Army United scores more
29%

Lampang FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Army United

Lampang FC and Army United drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang).