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Lampang FC vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
2 – 0
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
3/2/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lampang FC53%
×Draw24%
Air Force Central FC23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.67
Air Force Central FC
1.00

Lampang FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.47
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.00
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
77%
Lampang FC or Air Force Central FC
76%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
47%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
29%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
81%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
50%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
23%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
63%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
26%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
70%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 99 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.47 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.67

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Lampang FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Lampang FC scores more
53%
level
24%
Air Force Central FC scores more
23%

Lampang FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Air Force Central FC

Lampang FC beat Air Force Central FC 2-0 in Thai League 2 on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang).