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Lamia vs Volos NFC — Super League 1 2018

Lamia
Lamia
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Volos NFC
Volos NFC
4/23/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 4Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Lamia38%
×Draw27%
Volos NFC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamia
1.29
Volos NFC
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 117 home / 118 away

creates per match

Lamia
0.88
Volos NFC
1.00

allows per match

Lamia
1.49
Volos NFC
1.71

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par
Volos NFC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Volos NFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lamia or draw
64%
Lamia or Volos NFC
73%
Draw or Volos NFC
62%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+
17%
Volos NFC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals
72%
Lamia 2+ goals
37%
Lamia 3+ goals
14%
Volos NFC 1+ goals
71%
Volos NFC 2+ goals
36%
Volos NFC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)
51%
Volos NFC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

Volos NFC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.71 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Volos NFC defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.29

Volos NFC attack 1.00 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lamia scores more
38%
level
27%
Volos NFC scores more
36%

Lamia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lamia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Lamia 1–3 Volos NFC

Volos NFC beat Lamia 3-1 in Super League 1 on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Lamia.