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Lamia vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

Lamia
Lamia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
PAOK
PAOK
3/3/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 26Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Lamia23%
×Draw25%
PAOK52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamia
0.96
PAOK
1.60

PAOK creates 67% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 137 away

creates per match

Lamia
0.88
PAOK
1.72

allows per match

Lamia
1.49
PAOK
1.03

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lamia or draw
48%
Lamia or PAOK
75%
Draw or PAOK
77%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+
8%
PAOK wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals
62%
Lamia 2+ goals
25%
Lamia 3+ goals
7%
PAOK 1+ goals
80%
PAOK 2+ goals
47%
PAOK 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)
30%
PAOK (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

PAOK attack 1.72 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lamia scores more
23%
level
25%
PAOK scores more
52%

PAOK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Lamia 0–2 PAOK

PAOK beat Lamia 2-0 in Super League 1 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Lamia.