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Lamia vs Panserraikos — Super League 1 2018

Lamia
Lamia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Panserraikos
Panserraikos
5/10/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 7Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Lamia45%
×Draw26%
Panserraikos29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamia
1.49
Panserraikos
1.15

Lamia creates 30% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 52 away

creates per match

Lamia
0.88
Panserraikos
0.81

allows per match

Lamia
1.49
Panserraikos
2.10

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par
Panserraikos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Panserraikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lamia or draw
71%
Lamia or Panserraikos
74%
Draw or Panserraikos
55%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+
22%
Panserraikos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals
77%
Lamia 2+ goals
44%
Lamia 3+ goals
19%
Panserraikos 1+ goals
68%
Panserraikos 2+ goals
32%
Panserraikos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)
61%
Panserraikos (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

Panserraikos away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.10 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Panserraikos defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.49

Panserraikos attack 0.81 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lamia scores more
45%
level
26%
Panserraikos scores more
29%

Lamia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lamia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Lamia 2–1 Panserraikos

Lamia beat Panserraikos 2-1 in Super League 1 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias in Lamia.