Lamia 2–3 Levadiakos: Result & Stats

Lamia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Levadiakos

A. Athanasakopoulos 51'

A. Vlachomitros 33'

Zine 41', 24'

A. Ožbolt 15'

5/5/2025

Super League 1 · Relegation Round - 6Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Lamia35%

×Draw27%

Levadiakos38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LamiaExpected goals in this matchLevadiakos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.25

Lamia

1.20

Levadiakos

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 62 away

0.88

creates per match

1.00

1.51

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Lamia

0.88

Levadiakos

1.00

allows per match

Lamia

1.51

Levadiakos

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par

Levadiakos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Levadiakos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lamia or draw

62%

Lamia or Levadiakos

73%

Draw or Levadiakos

65%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+

15%

Levadiakos wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals

70%

Lamia 2+ goals

34%

Lamia 3+ goals

12%

Levadiakos 1+ goals

71%

Levadiakos 2+ goals

36%

Levadiakos 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)

48%

Levadiakos (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.51 · 114 matches

Levadiakos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Levadiakos defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Levadiakos attack 1.00 + Lamia defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lamia scores more

35%

level

27%

Levadiakos scores more

38%

Levadiakos at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Levadiakos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

Zine

Levadiakos · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

A. Ožbolt↳ B. Verbič

24'

Zine↳ F. Pedrozo

33'

A. Vlachomitros↳ Carles Soria

35'

Benjamin Verbič

41'

Zine↳ P. Liagas

45'

Enis Çokaj

46'

P. Kassos← T. Tsapras

51'

A. Athanasakopoulos↳ S. Ring

58'

A. Avraham← A. Ožbolt

66'

D. Chantakias← G. Giannoutsos

67'

Vasilios Sourlis

71'

Maximiliano Moreira

75'

Rober Ibáñez← T. Lake

76'

R. Erramuspe← B. Verbič

76'

L. Jallow← I. Kosti

80'

Dimitris ChantakiasPenalty cancelled

88'

Bilal Mazhar← V. Sourlis

90+2'

J. Romo← F. Pedrozo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LamiaLevadiakos

Overview

44%Possession56%

7Total Shots13

4Corners4

11Fouls25

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target5

3Off Target5

1Blocked3

2Inside Box5

5Outside Box8

Passing

44%Possession56%

384Total Passes500

310Accurate Passes430

81%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls25

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0