Lamia 3–3 Atromitos: Result & Stats

Lamia

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Atromitos

11/26/2023

Super League 1 · Round 12Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Lamia33%

×Draw27%

Atromitos40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LamiaExpected goals in this matchAtromitos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.29

Lamia

1.15

Atromitos

1.29

Atromitos creates 12% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 130 away

0.88

creates per match

1.08

1.49

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Lamia

0.88

Atromitos

1.08

allows per match

Lamia

1.49

Atromitos

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamia+0.00on par

Atromitos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamia ↓

Atromitos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lamia or draw

60%

Lamia or Atromitos

73%

Draw or Atromitos

67%

Winning margin

Lamia wins by 2+

13%

Atromitos wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lamia 1+ goals

68%

Lamia 2+ goals

32%

Lamia 3+ goals

11%

Atromitos 1+ goals

72%

Atromitos 2+ goals

37%

Atromitos 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Lamia (draw refunded)

45%

Atromitos (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamia at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 117 matches

Atromitos away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamia attack 0.88 + Atromitos defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.15

Atromitos attack 1.08 + Lamia defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Lamia scores more

33%

level

27%

Atromitos scores more

40%

Atromitos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atromitos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff