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Lambton Jaffas vs Weston Bears — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Weston Bears
Weston Bears
3/17/2024Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 4No.2 Sportsground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Lambton Jaffas43%
×Draw23%
Weston Bears34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lambton Jaffas
1.78
Weston Bears
1.57

Lambton Jaffas creates 13% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 80 away

creates per match

Lambton Jaffas
2.17
Weston Bears
1.89

allows per match

Lambton Jaffas
1.25
Weston Bears
1.39

finishing

Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par
Weston Bears+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lambton Jaffas ↓

Weston Bears →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Lambton Jaffas or draw
66%
Lambton Jaffas or Weston Bears
77%
Draw or Weston Bears
57%

Winning margin

Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
23%
Weston Bears wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
83%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
53%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
26%
Weston Bears 1+ goals
79%
Weston Bears 2+ goals
46%
Weston Bears 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
56%
Weston Bears (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lambton Jaffas at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

Weston Bears away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lambton Jaffas attack 2.17 + Weston Bears defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.78

Weston Bears attack 1.89 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lambton Jaffas scores more
43%
level
23%
Weston Bears scores more
34%

Lambton Jaffas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lambton Jaffas vs Weston Bears

Lambton Jaffas beat Weston Bears 2-1 in Northern NSW NPL on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at No.2 Sportsground in Newcastle.