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Lambton Jaffas vs Lake Macquarie — Northern NSW NPL 2026

Lambton Jaffas
Lambton Jaffas
FT
8 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie
7/1/2023Northern NSW NPLNorthern NSW NPL · Round 17Arthur Edden Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lambton Jaffas71%
×Draw16%
Lake Macquarie13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lambton Jaffas
2.76
Lake Macquarie
1.11

Lambton Jaffas creates 149% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 59 away

creates per match

Lambton Jaffas
2.17
Lake Macquarie
0.98

allows per match

Lambton Jaffas
1.25
Lake Macquarie
3.36

finishing

Lambton Jaffas+0.00on par
Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lambton Jaffas ↓

Lake Macquarie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Lambton Jaffas or draw
87%
Lambton Jaffas or Lake Macquarie
84%
Draw or Lake Macquarie
29%

Winning margin

Lambton Jaffas wins by 2+
50%
Lake Macquarie wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lambton Jaffas 1+ goals
94%
Lambton Jaffas 2+ goals
76%
Lambton Jaffas 3+ goals
51%
Lake Macquarie 1+ goals
67%
Lake Macquarie 2+ goals
30%
Lake Macquarie 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lambton Jaffas (draw refunded)
85%
Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lambton Jaffas at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.25 · 84 matches

Lake Macquarie away — creates 0.98, concedes 3.36 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lambton Jaffas attack 2.17 + Lake Macquarie defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.76

Lake Macquarie attack 0.98 + Lambton Jaffas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Lambton Jaffas scores more
71%
level
16%
Lake Macquarie scores more
13%

Lambton Jaffas at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Lambton Jaffas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Northern NSW NPL: Lambton Jaffas 8–0 Lake Macquarie

Lambton Jaffas beat Lake Macquarie 8-0 in Northern NSW NPL on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Arthur Edden Oval in Newcastle.