Aldosivi 1–0 Chacarita Juniors: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chacarita Juniors

M. Carrasco 37'

5/26/2012

Primera Nacional · Round 35Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Aldosivi45%

×Draw30%

Chacarita Juniors24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchChacarita Juniors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.79

Aldosivi

1.19

Chacarita Juniors

0.79

Aldosivi creates 51% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 126 away

1.13

creates per match

0.91

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Aldosivi

1.13

Chacarita Juniors

0.91

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.67

Chacarita Juniors

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aldosivi+0.00on par

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Chacarita Juniors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

76%

Aldosivi or Chacarita Juniors

70%

Draw or Chacarita Juniors

55%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

20%

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

70%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

33%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

12%

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals

55%

Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals

19%

Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

65%

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.25 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 1.13 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.91 + Aldosivi defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aldosivi scores more

45%

level

30%

Chacarita Juniors scores more

24%

Aldosivi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Carrasco

46'

J. Piris← F. Dolci

52'

M. Herrón← A. Briones

61'

L. Aguirre← V. Malcorra

68'

E. Seccafien← M. Vega

74'

C. Guanca← J. Cobelli

80'

G. Rossi← M. Pajón

Aldosivi

Chacarita

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

52'▲M. Herrón←▼A. Briones

61'▲L. Aguirre←▼V. Malcorra

68'▲E. Seccafien←▼M. Vega

Aldosivi substitutes

HerrónAguirreSeccafienUribeGalvánGullottaPiñero

46'▲J. Piris←▼F. Dolci

74'▲C. Guanca←▼J. Cobelli

80'▲G. Rossi←▼M. Pajón

Chacarita Juniors substitutes

PirisGuancaRossiBelloneNizzoFernandezEspíndola