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Lala FC vs Deportivo La Guaira — Primera División 2018

Lala FC
Lala FC
CANC
20:00
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira
9/30/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 31CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lala FC26%
×Draw26%
Deportivo La Guaira49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lala FC
1.05
Deportivo La Guaira
1.54

Deportivo La Guaira creates 47% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 149 away

creates per match

Lala FC
0.91
Deportivo La Guaira
1.24

allows per match

Lala FC
1.85
Deportivo La Guaira
1.19

finishing

Lala FC+0.00on par
Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lala FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lala FC or draw
51%
Lala FC or Deportivo La Guaira
74%
Draw or Deportivo La Guaira
74%

Winning margin

Lala FC wins by 2+
10%
Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lala FC 1+ goals
65%
Lala FC 2+ goals
28%
Lala FC 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals
79%
Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals
45%
Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lala FC (draw refunded)
35%
Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lala FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lala FC attack 0.91 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.24 + Lala FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lala FC scores more
26%
level
26%
Deportivo La Guaira scores more
49%

Deportivo La Guaira at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo La Guaira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lala FC face Deportivo La Guaira (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Lala FC hosting Deportivo La Guaira. Match starts September 30, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lala FC host Deportivo La Guaira at CTE Cachamay.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.