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Lala FC vs Deportivo Anzoategui — Primera División 2018

Lala FC
Lala FC
CANC
00:00
Deportivo Anzoategui
Deportivo Anzoategui
8/3/2019Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 2CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Lala FC37%
×Draw26%
Deportivo Anzoategui38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lala FC
1.36
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lala FC
0.91
Deportivo Anzoategui
0.92

allows per match

Lala FC
1.85
Deportivo Anzoategui
1.81

finishing

Lala FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Anzoategui+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lala FC ↓

Deportivo Anzoategui →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lala FC or draw
62%
Lala FC or Deportivo Anzoategui
74%
Draw or Deportivo Anzoategui
63%

Winning margin

Lala FC wins by 2+
17%
Deportivo Anzoategui wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lala FC 1+ goals
74%
Lala FC 2+ goals
39%
Lala FC 3+ goals
16%
Deportivo Anzoategui 1+ goals
75%
Deportivo Anzoategui 2+ goals
40%
Deportivo Anzoategui 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lala FC (draw refunded)
49%
Deportivo Anzoategui (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lala FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

Deportivo Anzoategui away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lala FC attack 0.91 + Deportivo Anzoategui defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.36

Deportivo Anzoategui attack 0.92 + Lala FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lala FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Deportivo Anzoategui scores more
38%

Deportivo Anzoategui at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Deportivo Anzoategui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lala FC face Deportivo Anzoategui (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Lala FC hosting Deportivo Anzoategui. Match starts August 3, 2019. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lala FC host Deportivo Anzoategui at CTE Cachamay (Ciudad Guayana).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.