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Lala FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Lala FC
Lala FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
8/15/2021Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lala FC32%
×Draw26%
Atletico Venezuela42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lala FC
1.22
Atletico Venezuela
1.44

Atletico Venezuela creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 60 away

creates per match

Lala FC
0.91
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Lala FC
1.85
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Lala FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lala FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lala FC or draw
58%
Lala FC or Atletico Venezuela
74%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
68%

Winning margin

Lala FC wins by 2+
13%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Lala FC 1+ goals
70%
Lala FC 2+ goals
34%
Lala FC 3+ goals
12%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
42%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lala FC (draw refunded)
43%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lala FC at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.85 · 33 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lala FC attack 0.91 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.22

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Lala FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lala FC scores more
32%
level
26%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
42%

Atletico Venezuela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lala FC vs Atletico Venezuela

Lala FC and Atletico Venezuela drew 1-1 in Primera División on August 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya in Ciudad Bolívar.