Laktaši 2–0 Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad: Result & Stats

Laktaši

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

8/12/2023

1st League - RS · RS - 1Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Laktaši73%

×Draw17%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LaktašiExpected goals in this matchSloboda Mrkonjić Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

0.77

Laktaši

2.36

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.77

Laktaši creates 206% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 51 away

2.70

creates per match

0.88

0.65

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Laktaši

2.70

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

0.88

allows per match

Laktaši

0.65

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw

89%

Laktaši or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

83%

Draw or Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad

27%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+

49%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals

90%

Laktaši 2+ goals

68%

Laktaši 3+ goals

41%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 1+ goals

54%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 2+ goals

18%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)

87%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.36

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad attack 0.88 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Laktaši scores more

73%

level

17%

Sloboda Mrkonjić Grad scores more

11%

Laktaši at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff