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Laktaši vs Omarska — 1st League - RS 2019

Laktaši
Laktaši
FT
3 – 1
Omarska
Omarska
4/19/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 25Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Laktaši78%
×Draw14%
Omarska8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laktaši
2.69
Omarska
0.76

Laktaši creates 254% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 65 away

creates per match

Laktaši
2.70
Omarska
0.86

allows per match

Laktaši
0.65
Omarska
2.68

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par
Omarska+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Omarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw
92%
Laktaši or Omarska
86%
Draw or Omarska
22%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+
56%
Omarska wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals
93%
Laktaši 2+ goals
74%
Laktaši 3+ goals
49%
Omarska 1+ goals
53%
Omarska 2+ goals
18%
Omarska 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)
90%
Omarska (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Omarska away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.68 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Omarska defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.69

Omarska attack 0.86 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Laktaši scores more
78%
level
14%
Omarska scores more
8%

Laktaši at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laktaši vs Omarska

Laktaši beat Omarska 3-1 in 1st League - RS on April 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Laktaša in Laktaši.