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Laktaši vs Leotar — 1st League - RS 2019

Laktaši
Laktaši
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Leotar
Leotar
3/21/20261st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 21Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Laktaši66%
×Draw20%
Leotar14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laktaši
2.00
Leotar
0.77

Laktaši creates 160% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 63 away

creates per match

Laktaši
2.70
Leotar
0.89

allows per match

Laktaši
0.65
Leotar
1.30

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par
Leotar+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Leotar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw
86%
Laktaši or Leotar
80%
Draw or Leotar
34%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+
41%
Leotar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals
86%
Laktaši 2+ goals
59%
Laktaši 3+ goals
32%
Leotar 1+ goals
54%
Leotar 2+ goals
18%
Leotar 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)
83%
Leotar (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Leotar away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.30 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Leotar defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.00

Leotar attack 0.89 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Laktaši scores more
66%
level
20%
Leotar scores more
14%

Laktaši at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Laktaši 0–2 Leotar

Leotar beat Laktaši 2-0 in 1st League - RS on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Laktaša in Laktaši.