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Laktaši vs BSK Banja Luka — 1st League - RS 2019

Laktaši
Laktaši
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BSK Banja Luka
BSK Banja Luka
10/25/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 13Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Laktaši63%
×Draw20%
BSK Banja Luka16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laktaši
2.10
BSK Banja Luka
0.96

Laktaši creates 119% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 48 away

creates per match

Laktaši
2.70
BSK Banja Luka
1.27

allows per match

Laktaši
0.65
BSK Banja Luka
1.50

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par
BSK Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

BSK Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw
84%
Laktaši or BSK Banja Luka
80%
Draw or BSK Banja Luka
37%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+
40%
BSK Banja Luka wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals
88%
Laktaši 2+ goals
62%
Laktaši 3+ goals
35%
BSK Banja Luka 1+ goals
62%
BSK Banja Luka 2+ goals
25%
BSK Banja Luka 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)
79%
BSK Banja Luka (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

BSK Banja Luka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.50 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + BSK Banja Luka defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.10

BSK Banja Luka attack 1.27 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Laktaši scores more
63%
level
20%
BSK Banja Luka scores more
16%

Laktaši at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Laktaši 1–1 BSK Banja Luka

Laktaši and BSK Banja Luka drew 1-1 in 1st League - RS on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Laktaša in Laktaši.