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Laktaši vs Borac Kozarska Dubica — 1st League - RS 2019

Laktaši
Laktaši
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
5/18/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 32Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Laktaši77%
×Draw15%
Borac Kozarska Dubica8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laktaši
2.52
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.70

Laktaši creates 260% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 64 away

creates per match

Laktaši
2.70
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.75

allows per match

Laktaši
0.65
Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.34

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par
Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw
92%
Laktaši or Borac Kozarska Dubica
85%
Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica
23%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+
54%
Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals
92%
Laktaši 2+ goals
71%
Laktaši 3+ goals
45%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
50%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
16%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)
90%
Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.52

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Laktaši scores more
77%
level
15%
Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
8%

Laktaši at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laktaši vs Borac Kozarska Dubica

Laktaši beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 2-1 in 1st League - RS on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Laktaša in Laktaši.