Lakhdaria 3–0 Amal BOU Saada: Result & Stats

Lakhdaria

3 – 0

Amal BOU Saada

2/27/2021

League #187 · Center - 3Stade Mansour Khodja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lakhdaria55%

×Draw26%

Amal BOU Saada19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LakhdariaExpected goals in this matchAmal BOU Saada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.78

Lakhdaria

1.54

Amal BOU Saada

0.78

Lakhdaria creates 97% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

0.89

0.67

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Lakhdaria

1.33

Amal BOU Saada

0.89

allows per match

Lakhdaria

0.67

Amal BOU Saada

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lakhdaria+0.00on par

Amal BOU Saada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lakhdaria ↓

Amal BOU Saada →

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lakhdaria or draw

81%

Lakhdaria or Amal BOU Saada

74%

Draw or Amal BOU Saada

45%

Winning margin

Lakhdaria wins by 2+

29%

Amal BOU Saada wins by 2+

Team goals

Lakhdaria 1+ goals

79%

Lakhdaria 2+ goals

45%

Lakhdaria 3+ goals

20%

Amal BOU Saada 1+ goals

54%

Amal BOU Saada 2+ goals

18%

Amal BOU Saada 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lakhdaria (draw refunded)

74%

Amal BOU Saada (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lakhdaria at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Amal BOU Saada away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lakhdaria attack 1.33 + Amal BOU Saada defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Amal BOU Saada attack 0.89 + Lakhdaria defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lakhdaria scores more

55%

level

26%

Amal BOU Saada scores more

19%

Lakhdaria at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lakhdaria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff