Lake Macquarie 0–1 Valentine: Result & Stats

Lake Macquarie

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Valentine

6/19/2022

Northern NSW NPL · Round 15Macquarie Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lake Macquarie28%

×Draw21%

Valentine50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lake MacquarieExpected goals in this matchValentine

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.05

Lake Macquarie

1.50

Valentine

2.05

Valentine creates 37% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 77 away

0.96

creates per match

1.26

2.84

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Lake Macquarie

0.96

Valentine

1.26

allows per match

Lake Macquarie

2.84

Valentine

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par

Valentine+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lake Macquarie ↓

Valentine →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Lake Macquarie or draw

50%

Lake Macquarie or Valentine

79%

Draw or Valentine

72%

Winning margin

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+

13%

Valentine wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals

78%

Lake Macquarie 2+ goals

44%

Lake Macquarie 3+ goals

19%

Valentine 1+ goals

87%

Valentine 2+ goals

61%

Valentine 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)

36%

Valentine (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lake Macquarie at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.84 · 57 matches

Valentine away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.05 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lake Macquarie attack 0.96 + Valentine defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.50

Valentine attack 1.26 + Lake Macquarie defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lake Macquarie scores more

28%

level

21%

Valentine scores more

50%

Valentine at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Valentine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff