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Lake Macquarie vs New Lambton — NNSW League 1 2026

Lake Macquarie
Lake Macquarie
FT
2 – 0
New Lambton
New Lambton
5/9/2026NNSW League 1NNSW League 1 · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Lake Macquarie41%
×Draw19%
New Lambton40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lake Macquarie
2.45
New Lambton
2.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

Lake Macquarie
3.19
New Lambton
3.00

allows per match

Lake Macquarie
1.88
New Lambton
1.71

finishing

Lake Macquarie+0.00on par
New Lambton+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lake Macquarie ↓

New Lambton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Lake Macquarie or draw
60%
Lake Macquarie or New Lambton
81%
Draw or New Lambton
59%

Winning margin

Lake Macquarie wins by 2+
24%
New Lambton wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Lake Macquarie 1+ goals
91%
Lake Macquarie 2+ goals
70%
Lake Macquarie 3+ goals
44%
New Lambton 1+ goals
91%
New Lambton 2+ goals
70%
New Lambton 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Lake Macquarie (draw refunded)
50%
New Lambton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lake Macquarie at home — creates 3.19, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

New Lambton away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lake Macquarie attack 3.19 + New Lambton defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.45

New Lambton attack 3.00 + Lake Macquarie defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lake Macquarie scores more
41%
level
19%
New Lambton scores more
40%

Lake Macquarie at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lake Macquarie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NNSW League 1: Lake Macquarie 2–0 New Lambton

Lake Macquarie beat New Lambton 2-0 in NNSW League 1 on May 9, 2026.