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Lajense vs Moreirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lajense
Lajense
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Moreirense
Moreirense
10/1/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Municipal Manuel Linhares Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lajense23%
×Draw21%
Moreirense55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lajense
1.25
Moreirense
2.04

Moreirense creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lajense
1.17
Moreirense
1.58

allows per match

Lajense
2.50
Moreirense
1.33

finishing

Lajense+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lajense ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lajense or draw
45%
Lajense or Moreirense
79%
Draw or Moreirense
77%

Winning margin

Lajense wins by 2+
9%
Moreirense wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Lajense 1+ goals
71%
Lajense 2+ goals
36%
Lajense 3+ goals
13%
Moreirense 1+ goals
87%
Moreirense 2+ goals
60%
Moreirense 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Lajense (draw refunded)
29%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lajense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lajense attack 1.17 + Moreirense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Moreirense attack 1.58 + Lajense defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lajense scores more
23%
level
21%
Moreirense scores more
55%

Moreirense at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lajense vs Moreirense

Moreirense beat Lajense 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 1, 2022.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Manuel Linhares Lima in Lajes.