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Lajense vs Maria da Fonte — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lajense
Lajense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Maria da Fonte
Maria da Fonte
9/21/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundCampo Municipal Bom Jesus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lajense9%
×Draw15%
Maria da Fonte76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lajense
0.75
Maria da Fonte
2.58

Maria da Fonte creates 244% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lajense
1.17
Maria da Fonte
2.67

allows per match

Lajense
2.50
Maria da Fonte
0.33

finishing

Lajense+0.00on par
Maria da Fonte+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lajense ↓

Maria da Fonte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–212%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lajense or draw
24%
Lajense or Maria da Fonte
85%
Draw or Maria da Fonte
91%

Winning margin

Lajense wins by 2+
2%
Maria da Fonte wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Lajense 1+ goals
53%
Lajense 2+ goals
17%
Lajense 3+ goals
4%
Maria da Fonte 1+ goals
92%
Maria da Fonte 2+ goals
72%
Maria da Fonte 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Lajense (draw refunded)
10%
Maria da Fonte (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lajense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Maria da Fonte away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lajense attack 1.17 + Maria da Fonte defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.75

Maria da Fonte attack 2.67 + Lajense defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Lajense scores more
9%
level
15%
Maria da Fonte scores more
76%

Maria da Fonte at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Maria da Fonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lajense vs Maria da Fonte

Maria da Fonte beat Lajense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Bom Jesus in Ilha do Pico, Açores.