Lajense 1–7 Lusitano Évora 1911: Result & Stats

Lajense

1 – 7

HT: 1 – 1

Lusitano Évora 1911

9/6/2025

Taça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsCampo Municipal Bom Jesus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lajense11%

×Draw15%

Lusitano Évora 191174%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LajenseExpected goals in this matchLusitano Évora 1911

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

2.92

Lajense

1.08

Lusitano Évora 1911

2.92

Lusitano Évora 1911 creates 170% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

3.33

2.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lajense

1.17

Lusitano Évora 1911

3.33

allows per match

Lajense

2.50

Lusitano Évora 1911

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lajense+0.00on par

Lusitano Évora 1911+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lajense ↓

Lusitano Évora 1911 →

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–38%

0–46%

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Lajense or draw

26%

Lajense or Lusitano Évora 1911

85%

Draw or Lusitano Évora 1911

89%

Winning margin

Lajense wins by 2+

Lusitano Évora 1911 wins by 2+

54%

Team goals

Lajense 1+ goals

66%

Lajense 2+ goals

29%

Lajense 3+ goals

10%

Lusitano Évora 1911 1+ goals

94%

Lusitano Évora 1911 2+ goals

78%

Lusitano Évora 1911 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Lajense (draw refunded)

13%

Lusitano Évora 1911 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lajense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

Lusitano Évora 1911 away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lajense attack 1.17 + Lusitano Évora 1911 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lusitano Évora 1911 attack 3.33 + Lajense defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 74%?"

Lajense scores more

11%

level

15%

Lusitano Évora 1911 scores more

74%

Lusitano Évora 1911 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Lusitano Évora 1911 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lajense 1–7 Lusitano Évora 1911

Lusitano Évora 1911 beat Lajense 7-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 6, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Bom Jesus in Madalena (Ilha do Pico, Açores).

Lajense vs Lusitano Évora 1911 — Taça de Portugal 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Taça de Portugal: Lajense 1–7 Lusitano Évora 1911