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Lajense vs 1º Dezembro — Taça de Portugal 2018

Lajense
Lajense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
8/31/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1/128-finalsCampo Municipal Manuel Linhares Lima

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lajense20%
×Draw19%
1º Dezembro60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lajense
1.33
1º Dezembro
2.38

1º Dezembro creates 79% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lajense
1.17
1º Dezembro
2.25

allows per match

Lajense
2.50
1º Dezembro
1.50

finishing

Lajense+0.00on par
1º Dezembro+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lajense ↓

1º Dezembro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lajense or draw
40%
Lajense or 1º Dezembro
81%
Draw or 1º Dezembro
80%

Winning margin

Lajense wins by 2+
8%
1º Dezembro wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Lajense 1+ goals
74%
Lajense 2+ goals
38%
Lajense 3+ goals
15%
1º Dezembro 1+ goals
91%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
68%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Lajense (draw refunded)
25%
1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lajense at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.50 · 6 matches

1º Dezembro away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lajense attack 1.17 + 1º Dezembro defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

1º Dezembro attack 2.25 + Lajense defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lajense scores more
20%
level
19%
1º Dezembro scores more
60%

1º Dezembro at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "1º Dezembro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Lajense 0–1 1º Dezembro

1º Dezembro beat Lajense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Manuel Linhares Lima in Lajes.