Lahti 0–0 Kooteepee: Result & Stats | Veikkausliiga

Lahti

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kooteepee

5/13/2023

Veikkausliiga · Round 6Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Lahti51%

×Draw24%

Kooteepee25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LahtiExpected goals in this matchKooteepee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.13

Lahti

1.71

Kooteepee

1.13

Lahti creates 51% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 44 away

1.26

creates per match

0.98

1.27

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Lahti

1.26

Kooteepee

0.98

allows per match

Lahti

1.27

Kooteepee

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par

Kooteepee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Kooteepee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Lahti or draw

75%

Lahti or Kooteepee

76%

Draw or Kooteepee

49%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+

27%

Kooteepee wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals

82%

Lahti 2+ goals

51%

Lahti 3+ goals

24%

Kooteepee 1+ goals

68%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

31%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)

67%

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Kooteepee away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Kooteepee defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kooteepee attack 0.98 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lahti scores more

51%

level

24%

Kooteepee scores more

25%

Lahti at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff