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Lahti vs Atlantis — Suomen Cup 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Atlantis
Atlantis
6/14/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 6th RoundLahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Lahti16%
×Draw16%
Atlantis68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.39
Atlantis
2.96

Atlantis creates 113% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.58
Atlantis
4.60

allows per match

Lahti
1.33
Atlantis
1.20

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Atlantis+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Atlantis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
32%
Lahti or Atlantis
84%
Draw or Atlantis
84%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
6%
Atlantis wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
75%
Lahti 2+ goals
40%
Lahti 3+ goals
16%
Atlantis 1+ goals
95%
Atlantis 2+ goals
79%
Atlantis 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
19%
Atlantis (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

Atlantis away — creates 4.60, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.58 + Atlantis defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Atlantis attack 4.60 + Lahti defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lahti scores more
16%
level
16%
Atlantis scores more
68%

Atlantis at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Atlantis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Lahti 4–2 Atlantis

Lahti beat Atlantis 4-2 in Suomen Cup on June 14, 2022.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.