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Lahti Akatemia vs KJP — Suomen Cup 2018

Lahti Akatemia
Lahti Akatemia
FT
6 – 2
KJP
KJP
2/25/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMukkulan halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lahti Akatemia22%
×Draw18%
KJP60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti Akatemia
1.69
KJP
2.81

KJP creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Lahti Akatemia
2.25
KJP
3.63

allows per match

Lahti Akatemia
2.00
KJP
1.13

finishing

Lahti Akatemia+0.00on par
KJP+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti Akatemia ↓

KJP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Lahti Akatemia or draw
40%
Lahti Akatemia or KJP
82%
Draw or KJP
78%

Winning margin

Lahti Akatemia wins by 2+
10%
KJP wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lahti Akatemia 1+ goals
82%
Lahti Akatemia 2+ goals
50%
Lahti Akatemia 3+ goals
24%
KJP 1+ goals
94%
KJP 2+ goals
76%
KJP 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Lahti Akatemia (draw refunded)
27%
KJP (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti Akatemia at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

KJP away — creates 3.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti Akatemia attack 2.25 + KJP defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.69

KJP attack 3.63 + Lahti Akatemia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Lahti Akatemia scores more
22%
level
18%
KJP scores more
60%

KJP at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KJP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Lahti Akatemia 6–2 KJP

Lahti Akatemia beat KJP 6-2 in Suomen Cup on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Mukkulan halli in Lahti.