Lagunak 3–2 Valle Egüés: Result & Stats

Lagunak

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Valle Egüés

4/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 29Estadio Municipal de Lagunak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lagunak38%

×Draw27%

Valle Egüés35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LagunakExpected goals in this matchValle Egüés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.21

Lagunak

1.28

Valle Egüés

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 90 away

1.19

creates per match

1.27

1.16

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lagunak

1.19

Valle Egüés

1.27

allows per match

Lagunak

1.16

Valle Egüés

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagunak+0.00on par

Valle Egüés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagunak ↓

Valle Egüés →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Lagunak or draw

65%

Lagunak or Valle Egüés

73%

Draw or Valle Egüés

62%

Winning margin

Lagunak wins by 2+

17%

Valle Egüés wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lagunak 1+ goals

72%

Lagunak 2+ goals

37%

Lagunak 3+ goals

14%

Valle Egüés 1+ goals

70%

Valle Egüés 2+ goals

34%

Valle Egüés 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lagunak (draw refunded)

52%

Valle Egüés (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagunak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Valle Egüés away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.38 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagunak attack 1.19 + Valle Egüés defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Valle Egüés attack 1.27 + Lagunak defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lagunak scores more

38%

level

27%

Valle Egüés scores more

35%

Lagunak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lagunak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff