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Lagunak vs Peña Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lagunak
Lagunak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Peña Sport
Peña Sport
11/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 9Estadio Municipal de Lagunak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lagunak35%
×Draw27%
Peña Sport38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagunak
1.21
Peña Sport
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 93 away

creates per match

Lagunak
1.19
Peña Sport
1.38

allows per match

Lagunak
1.16
Peña Sport
1.23

finishing

Lagunak+0.00on par
Peña Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagunak ↓

Peña Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lagunak or draw
62%
Lagunak or Peña Sport
73%
Draw or Peña Sport
65%

Winning margin

Lagunak wins by 2+
15%
Peña Sport wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lagunak 1+ goals
70%
Lagunak 2+ goals
34%
Lagunak 3+ goals
12%
Peña Sport 1+ goals
72%
Peña Sport 2+ goals
36%
Peña Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lagunak (draw refunded)
48%
Peña Sport (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagunak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Peña Sport away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagunak attack 1.19 + Peña Sport defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Peña Sport attack 1.38 + Lagunak defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lagunak scores more
35%
level
27%
Peña Sport scores more
38%

Peña Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Peña Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lagunak vs Peña Sport

Lagunak and Peña Sport drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lagunak in Barañáin.