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Lagunak vs Pamplona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Lagunak
Lagunak
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pamplona
Pamplona
11/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 11Estadio Municipal de Lagunak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lagunak37%
×Draw28%
Pamplona35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagunak
1.19
Pamplona
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 110 away

creates per match

Lagunak
1.19
Pamplona
1.15

allows per match

Lagunak
1.16
Pamplona
1.19

finishing

Lagunak+0.00on par
Pamplona+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagunak ↓

Pamplona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lagunak or draw
65%
Lagunak or Pamplona
72%
Draw or Pamplona
63%

Winning margin

Lagunak wins by 2+
16%
Pamplona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lagunak 1+ goals
70%
Lagunak 2+ goals
33%
Lagunak 3+ goals
12%
Pamplona 1+ goals
68%
Pamplona 2+ goals
32%
Pamplona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lagunak (draw refunded)
51%
Pamplona (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagunak at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 32 matches

Pamplona away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.19 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagunak attack 1.19 + Pamplona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Pamplona attack 1.15 + Lagunak defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lagunak scores more
37%
level
28%
Pamplona scores more
35%

Lagunak at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lagunak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: Lagunak 2–0 Pamplona

Lagunak beat Pamplona 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Lagunak in Barañáin.