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Laguna vs Central SC — Serie D 2026

Laguna
Laguna
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Central SC
Central SC
Erivelton 52'
Luiz Paulo 12'
4/5/2026Serie DSerie D · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Laguna24%
×Draw33%
Central SC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna
0.68
Central SC
1.02

Central SC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 37 away

creates per match

Laguna
0.40
Central SC
0.84

allows per match

Laguna
1.20
Central SC
0.95

finishing

Laguna+0.00on par
Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 76Over: 2476%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 68Yes: 3268%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna ↓

Central SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–119%
0–210%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Laguna or draw
57%
Laguna or Central SC
67%
Draw or Central SC
76%

Winning margin

Laguna wins by 2+
7%
Central SC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Laguna 1+ goals
49%
Laguna 2+ goals
15%
Laguna 3+ goals
3%
Central SC 1+ goals
64%
Central SC 2+ goals
27%
Central SC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Laguna (draw refunded)
36%
Central SC (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna attack 0.40 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.68

Central SC attack 0.84 + Laguna defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Laguna scores more
24%
level
33%
Central SC scores more
43%

Central SC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
Luiz Paulo
52'
Erivelton
81'
I. E. Moran Maldonado
Laguna
Central
Gustavo Nabinger
Manager: Gustavo Nabinger
Leandro Sena
Manager: Leandro Sena

Serie D: Laguna 1–1 Central SC

Laguna and Central SC drew 1-1 in Serie D on April 5, 2026.

Goals: Luiz Paulo (12'), Erivelton (52').