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Laguna de Duero vs Mojados — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mojados
Mojados
9/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero38%
×Draw28%
Mojados35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
1.22
Mojados
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Mojados
0.86

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Mojados
1.80

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Mojados+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Mojados →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
65%
Laguna de Duero or Mojados
72%
Draw or Mojados
62%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
16%
Mojados wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
70%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
34%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
12%
Mojados 1+ goals
69%
Mojados 2+ goals
32%
Mojados 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
52%
Mojados (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Mojados away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Mojados defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.22

Mojados attack 0.86 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
38%
level
28%
Mojados scores more
35%

Laguna de Duero at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Laguna de Duero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laguna de Duero vs Mojados

Mojados beat Laguna de Duero 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.