Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Laguna de Duero vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
1/20/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero21%
×Draw27%
Cristo Atlético52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.79
Cristo Atlético
1.41

Cristo Atlético creates 78% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 80 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
48%
Laguna de Duero or Cristo Atlético
73%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
79%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
6%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
55%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
19%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
5%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
76%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
41%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
29%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.79

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
21%
level
27%
Cristo Atlético scores more
52%

Cristo Atlético at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 0–2 Cristo Atlético

Cristo Atlético beat Laguna de Duero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.