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Laguna de Duero vs Colegios Diocesanos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colegios Diocesanos
Colegios Diocesanos
11/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero37%
×Draw30%
Colegios Diocesanos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
1.10
Colegios Diocesanos
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 66 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Colegios Diocesanos
0.56

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Colegios Diocesanos
1.58

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Colegios Diocesanos+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Colegios Diocesanos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
67%
Laguna de Duero or Colegios Diocesanos
70%
Draw or Colegios Diocesanos
63%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
15%
Colegios Diocesanos wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
67%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
30%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
10%
Colegios Diocesanos 1+ goals
64%
Colegios Diocesanos 2+ goals
27%
Colegios Diocesanos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
53%
Colegios Diocesanos (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Colegios Diocesanos away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.58 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Colegios Diocesanos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.10

Colegios Diocesanos attack 0.56 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
37%
level
30%
Colegios Diocesanos scores more
33%

Laguna de Duero at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Laguna de Duero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 2–0 Colegios Diocesanos

Laguna de Duero beat Colegios Diocesanos 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.