Laguna de Duero 1–0 Briviesca: Result & Stats

Laguna de Duero

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Briviesca

2/15/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 24Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Laguna de Duero45%

×Draw28%

Briviesca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Laguna de DueroExpected goals in this matchBriviesca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.98

Laguna de Duero

1.34

Briviesca

0.98

Laguna de Duero creates 37% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

0.63

creates per match

0.50

1.46

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Laguna de Duero

0.63

Briviesca

0.50

allows per match

Laguna de Duero

1.46

Briviesca

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par

Briviesca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Briviesca →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw

73%

Laguna de Duero or Briviesca

72%

Draw or Briviesca

55%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+

21%

Briviesca wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals

74%

Laguna de Duero 2+ goals

39%

Laguna de Duero 3+ goals

15%

Briviesca 1+ goals

62%

Briviesca 2+ goals

26%

Briviesca 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)

62%

Briviesca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Briviesca away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Briviesca defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.34

Briviesca attack 0.50 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more

45%

level

28%

Briviesca scores more

27%

Laguna de Duero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Laguna de Duero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 1–0 Briviesca

Laguna de Duero beat Briviesca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.

Laguna de Duero vs Briviesca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 1–0 Briviesca