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Laguna de Duero vs Atlético Astorga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Laguna de Duero
Laguna de Duero
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Atlético Astorga
Atlético Astorga
11/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 10Estadio Municipal La Laguna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Laguna de Duero21%
×Draw28%
Atlético Astorga51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laguna de Duero
0.76
Atlético Astorga
1.36

Atlético Astorga creates 79% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 93 away

creates per match

Laguna de Duero
0.63
Atlético Astorga
1.27

allows per match

Laguna de Duero
1.46
Atlético Astorga
0.89

finishing

Laguna de Duero+0.00on par
Atlético Astorga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laguna de Duero ↓

Atlético Astorga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Laguna de Duero or draw
49%
Laguna de Duero or Atlético Astorga
72%
Draw or Atlético Astorga
79%

Winning margin

Laguna de Duero wins by 2+
6%
Atlético Astorga wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Laguna de Duero 1+ goals
53%
Laguna de Duero 2+ goals
18%
Laguna de Duero 3+ goals
4%
Atlético Astorga 1+ goals
74%
Atlético Astorga 2+ goals
39%
Atlético Astorga 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Laguna de Duero (draw refunded)
29%
Atlético Astorga (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laguna de Duero at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.46 · 35 matches

Atlético Astorga away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.89 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laguna de Duero attack 0.63 + Atlético Astorga defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.76

Atlético Astorga attack 1.27 + Laguna de Duero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Laguna de Duero scores more
21%
level
28%
Atlético Astorga scores more
51%

Atlético Astorga at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atlético Astorga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Laguna de Duero 0–4 Atlético Astorga

Atlético Astorga beat Laguna de Duero 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal La Laguna in Laguna de Duero.