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Lagun Onak vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Lagun Onak
Lagun Onak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Tolosa
Tolosa
1/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lagun Onak51%
×Draw26%
Tolosa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lagun Onak
1.54
Tolosa
0.96

Lagun Onak creates 60% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 48 away

creates per match

Lagun Onak
1.35
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Lagun Onak
0.97
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw
76%
Lagun Onak or Tolosa
74%
Draw or Tolosa
49%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+
26%
Tolosa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals
79%
Lagun Onak 2+ goals
45%
Lagun Onak 3+ goals
20%
Tolosa 1+ goals
62%
Tolosa 2+ goals
25%
Tolosa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)
68%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lagun Onak scores more
51%
level
26%
Tolosa scores more
24%

Lagun Onak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Lagun Onak 1–1 Tolosa

Lagun Onak and Tolosa drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Garmendipe in Azpeitia.