Lagun Onak 2–0 San Viator: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Viator

11/9/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 10Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lagun Onak72%

×Draw17%

San Viator11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchSan Viator

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.81

Lagun Onak

2.38

San Viator

0.81

Lagun Onak creates 194% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 17 away

1.35

creates per match

0.65

0.97

allows per match

3.41

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

San Viator

0.65

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

San Viator

3.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

San Viator+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

San Viator →

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

89%

Lagun Onak or San Viator

83%

Draw or San Viator

28%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

49%

San Viator wins by 2+

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

91%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

68%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

42%

San Viator 1+ goals

56%

San Viator 2+ goals

19%

San Viator 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

87%

San Viator (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

San Viator away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + San Viator defence 3.41 → ÷2 → 2.38

San Viator attack 0.65 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 72%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

72%

level

17%

San Viator scores more

11%

Lagun Onak at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff